Scenarios for the Contemporary University

“Life is a series of collisions with the future; it is not the sum of what we have been, but what we hunger to be.”

– José Ortega y Gasset –

Information technologies have changed the world we live in and the way we relate. The development of knowledge advances speedily; sometimes, its applications exceed the limits of imagination. Recently, terms such as “openness” and “globalization” that guide dominant economic trends in international relations stand out. This transformation is inherent in universities, and we perceive changes that could significantly change the university as we know it.

Filgueira and Peri (2004) sustain that the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean are struggling to find a better destination amid diminished scientific-technological development and increased poverty, inequality, and unemployment.

“Megatrends are long-term social, economic, or political phenomena that define the future of people, regions, and countries, depending on the responses to them. They generate a direction that simultaneously incorporates various aspects of society and noticeably impacts an important segment of the population over the long term.”

Scenario building is a tool that we as academicians use to reflect on our destiny as a global community, considering the present to anticipate our future. This activity is called foresight and is understood as “an attitude toward the present that integrates the future and past, a reflection that allows imagining possible futures” (Godet, 1999). The building of scenarios represents a contribution of academia to the design of sustainable development, inspired by principles of equity, democracy, justice, and freedom. This exercise allows universities to specify the scenarios of their work, such as substantive functions, governance, academic structure, their relationships with the State, society, their communities, and the regional and global positions they will assume in the next decade.

Global trends could profoundly alter the current university landscape and confront educational institutions with significant challenges in adapting to new scenarios. Inside this global vision of reality can be observed trends of change towards the future in all environments: economic, social, political, technological, and cultural.

“The University is also imagination, or it is nothing, and its task is the creation of the future.” – Alfred Whitehead –

Trends of the past and present

Megatrends are long-term social, economic, or political phenomena that define the future of people, regions, and countries, depending on the responses to them. They generate a direction that simultaneously incorporates various aspects of society and noticeably impacts an important segment of the population over the long term. López (2015, p. 32) visualizes three possible scenarios between 2014 and 2030: imperial hegemony, global ungovernability, and consensual international democracy.

At the Davos World Forum (2007), three global risk scenarios were presented: 1) Pandemic: with a virus that results in thousands of deaths and riots disrupting global geopolitics. 2) Climate change: the catastrophes caused by climate change lead to awareness and an effort to correct global economic inequalities. 3) Oil Shock: the price of oil skyrockets, leading to major tensions in global geopolitics, economic recession, and abandonment of the fight against climate change. All of these possibilities will have a mixed impact on the scenarios of higher education. (op.cit).

On the other hand, the scenarios proposed by García (1995) are the Market Scenario, describing the educational market and the times of dilemma; the Sustainable Development Scenario, describing global education and new academic pacts, and the Solidarity Scenario, representing the social actors and higher education.

In 1998, forty-three Colombians from the private sector came together and worked for several months on some of the most varied and supposedly irreconcilable trends (Destino Colombia, pp. 156 -164). The reflection of this group resulted in four scenarios, all of which are possible. Each describes a course of direction, explores its consequences, and shows that the future is built daily from the actions and decisions we make each day. The suggested scenarios are a) The day will dawn, and we will see; b) Better a bird in the hand than a hundred flying, and c) All to the march and in unity, there is a strength.

Also, Rama (2010, pp. 72-90) raises six trends for the University: Massification and distillation, Differentiation / de-homogenization, Commercialization and cessation of free donation, Internationalization and denationalization, and Virtualization and de-emphasis of present reality. While Tünnermann (1998, pp. 218-219) envisages three possible scenarios for humanity in forty-year periods from 1980 to 2100, principally related to the cultural environments. The period 1980-2020 is seen as dominated by mass social media and images; the stage for 2020-2060 would be one emphasizing educational society, and from 2060 to the end of the 21st-century would be the realm of a creative society. Finally, six scenarios for the future of universities are studied (López, 2015, pp. 27-29): the traditional, the entrepreneurial universities, free market, lifelong education and open education, the global network of institutions, and the disappearance of universities.

Reflection

One of the characteristics of the university in the 21st-century is the re-composition of its current role in society. This will be more promising if it comes from understanding and analysis and proposals and academic consensus about the role of the university and its objectives in the current globalized world.

The university is a space for the generation of alternatives and the renovation of societies and countries. But it has also not been a place that has been renovated dynamically and thoughtfully. The university has been changing, but not as a result of a process of deliberation and internal reform, but rather, following the force of events, without having managed so far to impose a more thoughtful and deliberated direction.
It has not harnessed that potential for innovation that always exists in the university to become a social force that complements the constitution of the social and political subjects that in recent times, have the possibility for renewal and articulation in the country. The contemporary university is debated in a constant tension between the weight of its history and the complex scenarios of the present, as described in this essay. To learn more, I invite you to consult the complete version of this article (in Spanish).

About the author

Galo Adán Clavijo Clavijo (gaclavijo95@gmail.com) is an engineer and has a master’s in Physical Metallurgy from the Technical University in Clausthal, Germany. His Ph.D. is in Pedagogical Sciences, from the University of the East in the Republic of Cuba. Doctor Honoris Causa. He has been in university director positions: Rector, Academic Vice-Chancellor, Dean and Head of Planning in several universities, including the National University of Colombia. Member of Senior and Executive Boards. Undergraduate and postgraduate teaching. Director and evaluator of master and doctoral theses. Researcher in educational and university policies. He has written about the University, its pedagogy, curricula, and educational policies.

References

Destino Colombia, una mirada al futuro, apéndice 3. Accessed from: http://destinocolombia.norma.net

Filgueira, C., Peri, A. (2004). América Latina: los rostros de la pobreza y sus causas determinantes. CEPAL – SERIE Población y desarrollo No 54, June. Santiago, Chile.

García, C. (1995). Globalización y conocimiento en tres tipos de escenarios. En: Educación superior y sociedad, Vol.6 N°1.

Godet, M. (1999). Manuel de prospective stratégique. Paris: Duno.

López, F. (2015). Tendencias en educación superior y la Universidad Nacional de Colombia. La Universidad Nacional de Colombia: visión prospectiva al año 2034. Aportes para la construcción de la visión y el plan prospectivo de la Universidad Nacional de Colombia al año 2034. Vol. 2. Bogotá: Alen Ltda

Rama, C. (2010). Nuevos escenarios de la educación superior en América Latina. Quito: Imprenta Colón

Tünnermann, C. (1998). La educación superior en el umbral del siglo XXI. Caracas: IESALC/UNESCO